Iran’s Supreme Leader is caught in a Catch-22

By James M. Dorsey

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is caught between a rock and a hard place.

Asserting that foreign powers instigated the protests will not reduce widespread popular concern about the country’s dire economic circumstances, with rampant 40 per cent inflation and the collapse of its currency.

The regime’s brutal crackdown has allowed it to regain control, with protests, for now, petering out.

State media quoted the Intelligence Ministry as saying that authorities had arrested 3,000 “armed rioters” linked to “terrorist groups.”

Iran analyst Ali Vaez quipped that it was “stunning that the sclerotic IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) doesn’t understand that blaming high casualties/fatalities on foreign infiltrators means that the regime can secure neither Iran’s airspace nor its streets.”

For now, the question is for how long the government can retain control with potential future flashpoints around February 11, the 47th anniversary of the Iranian revolution, February 17, the 40th day of mourning for those killed in the protests, and March 20, the Iranian New Year.

Another round of protests, and potentially of violence, whether in the immediate future or further down the road, is all but certain if Iranian leaders fail to address the country’s structural economic problems, resulting from mismanagement, runaway corruption, and sanctions.

The irony is that Mr. Khamenei needs the very foreign powers he blames for the unrest, particularly the United States, to help him break the vicious cycle.

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